Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 22.840514 24.856534 27.034899 29.574921 32.469680 35.683086 39.543900
2025-12-07 19.600467 22.342343 25.512962 29.494884 34.426519 40.422423 48.405456
2025-12-14 17.298987 20.418575 24.218567 29.281936 36.002392 44.848733 57.800012
2025-12-21 16.111488 19.599823 24.047947 30.302599 39.164475 51.779950 72.169504
2025-12-28 14.722746 18.316498 23.059604 30.012473 40.391190 56.159523 83.949877
2026-01-04 13.691025 17.366206 22.364947 29.970173 41.879761 61.128705 98.113500
2026-01-11 12.945028 16.712883 21.981768 30.283361 43.898489 67.305261 116.538243
2026-01-18 12.164803 15.930928 21.317431 30.053598 44.953464 71.988417 133.768593
2026-01-25 11.504417 15.259657 20.740979 29.870034 46.020949 76.887811 153.570752
2026-02-01 10.960667 14.712315 20.293884 29.827664 47.304879 82.482305 177.846887
2026-02-08 10.448666 14.172324 19.806491 29.650352 48.290812 87.675962 204.008815
2026-02-15 9.979467 13.663676 19.323866 29.420209 49.124834 92.733964 233.082473
2026-02-22 9.533166 13.172295 18.847187 29.179103 49.964248 98.213776 268.581755
2026-03-01 9.161972 12.776076 18.497477 29.134331 51.217925 105.159751 316.568704
2026-03-08 8.794959 12.364246 18.090901 28.939745 52.121411 111.515944 369.678231
2026-03-15 8.666704 12.324629 18.306424 29.950059 55.904511 127.397510 495.291730
2026-03-22 8.334558 11.933722 17.887085 29.667650 56.622646 134.381940 583.866773
2026-03-29 8.066066 11.632579 17.603438 29.627321 57.926253 143.848414 713.958155
2026-04-05 7.869252 11.439227 17.496375 29.935967 60.170109 157.651384 928.984974
2026-04-12 7.609197 11.125947 17.152002 29.710197 60.984157 166.643200 1137.461491
2026-04-19 7.372956 10.841673 16.842782 29.529722 61.896790 176.579113 1419.900606
2026-04-26 7.170451 10.605513 16.607697 29.488087 63.197731 188.961631 1849.991425
2026-05-03 6.963327 10.351923 16.324880 29.313665 64.094966 200.181034 2400.315625